Mets 2007 Starting Pitching Outlook

Alot is being said that the Mets huge weakness is starting pitching, and because of this starting pitching nobody will pick the Mets to repeat. Omar, has been getting all the blame for not signing a big name starting pitcher.. I'll tell you I was on the Zito bandwagon, and I wanted him a Met. But when I saw the number of years and the money he was getting, I had no problem that he wasn't signed. Same thing with D-Mat I would of loved for him to get signed, figured the Mets would get all the money they put into him back by the Japanese fans, but there was no way anyone knew a team would go past the $50 million mark. The guess around baseball was that probably 34 million wins it. Mets winded up bidding 38 million, and came well short of Boston's 51.1 million.
So now here are the Mets. A starting rotation that will consist of 2 40+ year olds at the top of the rotation, completed by a 26 year old with 1 year MLB experience. A 25 year old who had a 6+ era last year, and a rookie Mike Pelfrey who can't control an off-speed pitch. For any projection you look at for the Mets this is why you see them finishing with 80 something wins, and finishing in second place. But here I may be a bit optimistic but I see a chance for a good rotation that will take the Mets to the promise land. Rick Peterson has alot of work ahead of him with the Rotation. It all starts with Tommy Glavine...

Tom Glavine:This guy is a work horse, maybe he is not an Ace but he is a guy you can depend on to put up solid numbers, and to make all his starts. You would have to go back to 1995 to find a year which Tom Glavine didn't have at least 30 starts. Glavine revived his career after 2003 which was the worst year ERA wise he has ever had. Glavine in 2003 went 9-14 with a 4.52 ERA, and all it took for this soon to be hall of famer was a golf analogy by Rick Peterson. Rick taught Glavine to throw his fastball more inside, and more importantly spot his change up on the inside. This made Glavine harder to guess, and it worked in 2004 which Glavine had a 3.60 ERA. Glavine came up big for the Mets in the post season overall going 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA. Even at age 41 will give you performances deep into games with a chance to win every time out. In 2006 he put up some great numbers, and the only reason why he didn't have more then 15 wins was because of a dry spell in July, and August were he won just 1 game combined. Thus meaning a little fall off in the second half that he picked up in September, and definitely picked up in October. An overlook for Glavine for 2007 looks something like 16-17 wins and a 3.6 ERA this including his 300th win of his terrific career, and also 2500 strike outs.

Orlando Hernandez: El Duque was traded to the Mets mid May for Jorge Julio. El Duque was another great trade for Omar Minaya, as he pitched to a 4.09 ERA as a Met. El Duque thrived pitching in the big time New York, and loved pitching in a great pitchers park in Shea where he pitched to a 3.00 ERA. But Hernandez's injury problems hurt him in 2006. After a great September when he had a 2.01 ERA, Hernandez was running in the outfield getting ready for his start in October when he hurt his calf muscle that took him out for the rest of the playoffs. Nobody knows how old El Duque really is, but we would have to guess around 40. El Duque's 2007 outlook depends on health, because when healthy he is a dominating pitcher, with some of the best off-speed pitches in the majors. For El Duque you would have to guess around 13 wins, and a ERA around 4.2.

John Maine:25 year old John Maine was just a throw in for the Kris Benson for Jorge Julio trade. But this kid showed great promise in 2006. In his rookie season John Maine pitched to a 3.60 ERA and a 3.28 ERA after the all-star break. But this rookies season was not done, because of the Injury to Orlando Hernandez before the playoffs started John Maine was now the Mets #2 starter in the playoffs, and he shined. Maine was 1-0 in the playoffs with a 2.63 ERA. But no start in the playoffs more important then his game 6 start against the St.Louis Cardinals where the Mets were facing elimination, and Maine was there last hope. Maine had to face off against Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter one of the best pitchers in the MLB. Maine came up huge for the Mets throwing 5.1 innings striking out 5 giving up 0 RUNS. And still after a great Rookie campaign, and Maine coming up big in the playoffs, nobody thinks he can do it again. A 2007 outlook for John Maine futures a much better change-up then he had in 2006 that he can control and throw more often so he doesn't have to keep throwing fastballs. Also a improved Slider which should make him tuff to hit. John Maine did have trouble with the homerun ball in 2006, he'll look to overcome that in 2007 where he will be around 15 wins and an ERA of close to 3.8

Oliver Perez: Oliver Perez was traded from the Pirates to the Mets near the trading deadline in 2006 in a deal that included Xavier Nady for Roberto Hernandez. It didin't matter where Perez was pitching he was AWFUL in the 2006 regular season. He combined for 3-13 and an ERA of 6.55. But once Perez was traded from the Pirates the true story came out. Perez's pitching coaches in Pittsburgh were trying to take this 25 year old fire baller, and turn him into a Tom Glavine finesse type pitcher. That didn't work, and when Perez got the the Mets Rick Peterson threw all that stuff out the door. Perez showed signs of being great for the Mets in 2007 as he returned throwing his mid to high 90's fastball, and a slider that when was on made him seem like Randy Johnson. Perez like Maine came up big in the playoffs, though he only pitched during the NLCS, and the Mets didn't want to put Perez the situation that would come about. At the time Perez was an untamed beast, he threw hard and didn't exactly know where the ball was going half the time. His first start during the NLCS he pitched 5 innings giving up 3 runs. But his second start would come after John Maine gave the Mets a huge win in game 6, Perez was the only starter that could throw game 7, and it was on 3 days rest. Perez came up HUGE for the Mets in game 7 giving them a chance to win the NLCS he threw 6 innings giving up just 1 run (Thanks to Endy Chavez) Perez struck out 4 walking just 2. Willie showed faith in Perez as he came out of the dugout in the middle of the 6th everybody in the stadium thought he was going to take Perez out, but Willie showed faith, and confidence in Perez that came through in the end. The Mets hope Perez's success in game 7 of the NLCS will give him all the confidence he needs to get over his horrid 2006 season. A 2007 outlook starts with Perez's spring training where he has a 2.70 ERA, and has looked great every time out. The most important thing Perez is doing this spring is not walking batters. I expect a much improved season from Perez, though with this kid he will make me look like an idiot, or a genius. Perez could win anywere from 5-17 games, and have either a 3.0 ERA or a 6.5 ERA.. I just think this kid, has to much potential to go to waste. And Perez already has all the good stuff it's just putting it together, and repeating his delivery. Who else better to help then Rick Peterson?.. Perez should have a much improved 2007 season.

Mike Pelfrey:2006 was Mike Pelfrey's first full year in the minors, and during that year Mike Pelfrey got his call up the MLB. At first Pelfrey looked great, but towards the end it was evident that Pelfrey did not have the off speed pitches necessary to be a starter at that time in the majors. After the season Pelfrey went to play winter ball, where he drooped his curveball and went to the slider. Also Pelfrey worked very hard on his change up. One scout from USA today calls Pelfrey a right handed Randy Johnson. Pelfrey's repertoire now consist of a 4 seam fastball, a heavy sinker, a slider, and a chang eup. Not many people thought Pelfrey would make the team out of spring training, but Pelfrey has put together a great spring pitching to a 1.0 ERA. Pelfrey showed in his start vs Detroit this spring that if he doesn't have his good fastball he can rely on his off speed pitches to help him get out of trouble. Something he could not do last season. This Spring Pelfrey has dominated people with his Sinker, and his Strike out numbers have been down, but he has solidified a spot in the rotation. Pelfrey should make his first start for the Mets around mid April because of off-days the Mets still don't know if there going to carry Pelfrey in the pen until that time or put him in AAA. A 2007 outlook for Mike Pelfrey features around 13-15 wins, and somewere around a 3.8 ERA. Pelfrey has been compared to Justin Verlander, and Jered Weaver and scouts say they wouldn't be surprised to see Pelfrey put up a rookie year like them. A rookie of the year award is not out of the question.

Bullpen Tomorrow?